This Saturday, Los Angeles becomes the center of the MLS universe once again as LAFC and the LA Galaxy face off in El Tráfico, a rivalry that rarely disappoints. But as these two sides collide, their momentum—and vulnerabilities—tell very different stories.

LAFC: Regaining Confidence but Hit by Key Injury

LAFC snapped a concerning stretch of four losses in five matches with a composed 2-1 win over Minnesota United FC on July 16. That victory provided a much-needed reset, as head coach Steve Cherundolo emphasized the maturity and control his squad displayed, particularly defensively.

LAFC rotated heavily in that match, resting marquee names like Denis Bouanga, who should be fully refreshed and ready to start against the Galaxy. However, the club has suffered a significant blow: center back Aaron Long is out for the season with an Achilles injury, as officially announced by the club this week. Long’s absence removes a key defensive pillar and forces LAFC to reshuffle at the back—potentially opening vulnerabilities against the Galaxy’s pacey front line.

Despite that setback, LAFC’s defensive discipline against Minnesota was commendable. With Hugo Lloris in goal and tactical flexibility in defense, Cherundolo’s side will still feel confident about managing the Galaxy’s attack, but the loss of Long changes the equation. Cherundolo, reflecting on the state of his team post-Club World Cup and ahead of the derby, remarked: “We learned that if we are tactically disciplined, have positional integrity, and stick to the plan, then we’re a very good team. Competing and just being good enough isn’t good enough. We want to play to our potential.”

Offensively, all eyes will be on Bouanga, LAFC’s dynamic attacker and current offensive leader. His rest day against Minnesota primes him for a starring role Thursday night, especially at home where LAFC thrive on energy and space. Cherundolo also emphasized the special energy of El Tráfico matches, stating: “They’re all fun… games where the intensity of every moment, every play, is a little greater than in other MLS matches. The more games we can get where the intensity level is raised, the better the MLS looks.”

LAFC’s win over Minnesota pushed them back into fourth place in the Western Conference, ensuring that they enter El Tráfico not only with momentum, but with an eye on climbing further up the standings.

LA Galaxy: A Step Back at the Worst Time

The last-placed Western Conference former champions LA Galaxy, meanwhile, stumble into El Tráfico on the back of a frustrating 2-1 home loss to Austin FC on July 16, their first defeat in four matches. Coach Greg Vanney cut a frustrated figure postgame, lamenting both defensive lapses and an inability to finish chances.

“We just weren’t sharp enough in the boxes,” Vanney said after the game, noting that conceding first continues to plague the Galaxy. Indeed, Austin struck first, and a second-half penalty from doubled the deficit before the Galaxy clawed one back in the 77th minute.

Despite the Galaxy’s possession dominance and some bright moments—particularly from Joseph Paintsil and Gabriel Pec—the team struggled to turn pressure into goals. Paintsil continued to create havoc on the flanks, while Pec, despite being fined for simulation in a previous match, remains an important creative outlet. Fortunately for the Galaxy, Pec is available and expected to start.

What’s concerning for Vanney is his side’s repeated defensive frailty, especially against disciplined, transition-savvy teams like LAFC. On the road, the Galaxy have been less convincing, and a short turnaround after their Austin defeat only compounds fatigue concerns. 

Storylines to Watch

• Aaron Long’s Absence: LAFC’s backline stability takes a hit without Long. How they compensate—whether through formation tweaks or player rotation—will be critical.
• Rest Differential: LAFC played on July 13 and rested key players. The Galaxy, playing just three days before the derby, will have heavy legs, especially late in the match.
• Momentum vs. Desperation: LAFC enter with some restored confidence. The Galaxy enter needing points and redemption to stabilize their playoff hopes.
• Home Fortress: BMO Stadium has been a fortress for LAFC, especially in high-stakes games like El Tráfico. The Galaxy have struggled away from home, adding another challenge.
• Key Players:
  • LAFC: Bouanga leads the attack.
  • LA Galaxy: Paintsil and Pec must be sharp in creating and finishing chances.

Expect LAFC to leverage their home advantage with early pressure, looking to Bouanga for incisive runs. Without Long, their defensive shape will be tested, especially against Paintsil’s speed and Pec’s trickery.

For the Galaxy, controlling midfield tempo and avoiding early concessions is critical. Vanney will need his side to stay compact, limit LAFC’s transition opportunities, and be clinical when chances arise—a persistent weakness in recent outings.

LAFC’s rest advantage, home support, and attacking quality suggest they are favorites. However, the Galaxy’s attacking style and ability to get underneath LAFC’s skin, regardless of the standings, has historically proven capable of punishing any defensive uncertainty. The match may hinge on whether LAFC can assert control early and whether the Galaxy can finally convert possession into a tangible lead and a win would keep their all but lost playoffs hopes alive for another day.

El Tráfico matches rarely follow the script. While LAFC holds the form and psychological advantage, the Galaxy’s desperation and attacking potential keep this encounter intriguing. As Cherundolo put it, “the intensity of every moment, every play” elevates these matches beyond standings or form. The stage is set for another intense chapter in MLS’s premier rivalry, where pride, pressure, and the pulse of Los Angeles are all on the line.